WC Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios__Energy_2015.pdf

Summary

This 2015 report outlines climate change mitigation strategies for the energy sector in South Africa's Western Cape, utilizing data models to project emissions through 2040. Researchers compared a baseline reference case against two primary scenarios: one implementing all possible measures (APM) and another adding a transition to natural gas. By evaluating 100 specific interventions across sectors like industry, transport, and agriculture, the study suggests that aggressive action could lower the annual emissions growth rate from 2.3% to 0.9%. A Multi-Criteria Analysis was employed to rank these interventions based on their economic cost, social impact, and technical feasibility. While the power generation sector offers the highest abatement potential through renewables, the report emphasizes that provincial and local governments have the most direct influence over buildings and agriculture. Ultimately, the findings provide a provisional roadmap for stakeholders to prioritize high-impact, manageable energy improvements to meet long-term sustainability goals.